Every time I’ve looked for an explanation of something GISS or HadCRUT does, I could find the answer. NOAA attempt to remove this the TOB bias. dont want to touch it. Please provide the values (the standard deviation) for the different regions of the USA, or the cite to the actual pages in the report where this is done. or we can discuss how the republicans will beclown themselves by calling the only skeptic stupid enough to make multiple fraud charges to the witness table. so I better shut up.). He willingly mixes with the group and perform his activities as an observer not merely a participator who criticize the situation. Deal. Cutting the max and min with daily mean is illogical nonsense (unless you are trying to sell a statistical artifact). Its enough. That’s what we published. ect ect etc. I know it is a lot of political theater but it seems to me they just want Nasa on the hot seat. In terms of the TOB bias, in addition to the average correction, what is also needed is the uncertainty in this value. It has been discovered that, 97% of the time, the closest CRN station is generally reading a cooler temperature than the automated station so the records must be searched to find the closest station with a warmer bias prior to making adjustments and homogenization AlGoreithms applied. It’s well known and well documented that Tavg {( Tmin+Tmax)/2} differs from Tmean Steven, no. There are comic books. the TOB) is selected for use in the adjustment process. And even if they were we still need to reduce it to Tmax and Tmin Skeptical experts who agree are ignored. The TOB adjustment applies only to fictitious observers. Moreover, while satellite and ground instrument record agree very well over Europe and United States where the best instruments are deployed there is not satisfactory agreement across most of the rest of the planet with satellite showing very little warming trend and instrument showing significant warming trend. Homogenization tends to make USHCN stations much more similar in record to proximate CRN stations during the period of overlap, even when CRN stations are excluded from the pool of stations used for homogenization. There was only one million years of all this that the cycle bounds grew larger and larger, but that changed back to the more normal small cycles for the most recent ten thousand years. And you’ve drawn a conclusion ( with no error bars) without even looking at approaches to the problem. G, Changing the time of observation CHANGES the observed Tmax and Tmin. The assumption is that the volunteers were fastidious in performing this task. I can search all stations, but that will be a stupid waste of time. Right, but adjustments should be instrument specific. I get computational overhead can be an issue. “Some skeptical thought leaders concur; roger Sr”. Hoax. if you want to see valid trends, you chart the morning, noon and evening readings separately, like so: J. Geophys. Depends on how many meters you have and how many times you read them. Now data from 3 sensors. Captain Stormuller’s Visit to Climate Heaven. Therefore, with good siting, the difference would likely be even a bit wider. Here’s one for Canada BEST hasn’t lived up to those standards. Many healthcare observations are open to systematic variation. It seemed to show such a TOB effect, but my sample was small and I did not investigate further. The real question is whether it is natural or manmade and the difference between models and measurements – as Dr Mears observed – tells us we really still don’t know that. What a stupid comment. If you want people to trust your results, you shouldn’t just hand them code and data and say, “Here, spend a couple months examining it.” You should do simple things like: 1) Explain what decisions go into your methodology. While I’m offering caveats, I should also point out that 20% figure is only for land temperatures. a dude named magicjava was going after satellite code. largely insensitive to the details of the correlation function, so it is expected that small changes in the correlation (1998).”, “Version A of these products was constructed by a simple merging procedure in which biases were calculated and removed from the individual satellites (Spencer and Christy 1992a,b). CRS to MMTS transition causes a linear effect since 1940 ??? I just realized I misread Steven Mosher’s comment. Users need to be informed of things which negatively impact your results. groups generally require their time series be long enough to contain a If after twenty more years we can all see that this idea does not have legs… no problem there either, you could blame it all on me. ==> “The uncertainty is critical, since it relates to ‘warmest year’ claims, estimates of trends, and comparisons with climate model simulations/projections.”. You can get CRN data and see for yourself. So looking at Jones’s temperature data is not only important to understand if the problem of UHI is handled correctly, it’s important because climate reconstructions depend on its accuracy. Also, I don’t want to sound stupid, but could these carbon isotope ratios get altered by organic matter raining from above, getting chewed on by bacteria, which in turn release CO2? HadCRUT uses U.S. data back to 1850. Things change slowly under the ground, 1 reading every 3 days would be plenty. That is our alarm. Lets postulate for a moment that the temperature record of the entire planet since 1880 that NASA used to identify 2014 as the warmest is pristine, with 0.01 degree resolution and 0.01 degree standard deviation (necessary to conclude that a +0.02 degree anomaly represents a record). Ushcn is used to adjust uscrn. For example if you look up Canada you see 3.64 +/- .44. So don’t average. use of wind machines for certain types of frost protection. Hell, MI — 48.18 — 48.15 — 45.13 ????? It didn’t, so I’ll keep discussing things in the hopes BEST will eventually live up to its promises. Maybe I have missed it, but I don’t see the issue mentioned above of NOAA non exisiting stations creating a warming bias through adjustments. warming trends have been supposed for trees. The open discussion of “getting rid” of the 1940s SST and the remaining land blip They were visionaries even then and knew they had to deal with their skeptics of the day with a better way to measure temperatures. Its a good product but its an entirely different animal. What makes you suggest that TOBs and homogenization adjustments have similar effects? Steven, I wasn’t accusing nobody, and not tryin destroy nuthin.. We don’t know when the Average Temp was measured on the thermometer. Mosh, TOBS is a small part of the total adjustments to the historic record. Meteor. They never get used. I currently dont have a detailed written explanation for all 40K. .5C, “The magnitude of the adjustments don’t seem consistent with with uncertainty estimates less than 0.1C.”. It would seem to me that the TOB adjustment should NOT be used by anyone concerned with climate over decades to centuries. http://www.todayifoundout.com/index.php/2014/05/origin-expression-blow-smoke-ass/, http://berkeleyearth.lbl.gov/station-list/, https://judithcurry.com/2015/02/22/understanding-time-of-observation-bias/#comment-677118, ftp://ftp.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/ushcn/papers/karl-etal1986.pdf, http://i81.photobucket.com/albums/j237/hausfath/ScreenShot2015-02-22at31815PM_zps887ea0e3.png, ftp://205.167.25.101/pub/data/ushcn/papers/karl-etal1986.pdf, http://notrickszone.com/2015/01/14/germanys-warming-happens-to-coincide-with-late-20th-century-implementation-of-digital-measurement/, http://rankexploits.com/musings/2010/a-cooling-bias-due-to-mmts/, http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/vaop/ncurrent/full/nclimate2531.html. in the begining folks only recorded daily min, daily max. Geoff, GS: As you go further back the accuracy of your estimate decreases, but it is still the best indication of what temperatures were. The need for adjustment arises of the time of observation changes, and you move from one curve to the other. the difference is simple. This has not been counted. Colorado tobacco included. they dont have to be cranks In any other field we’d automatically prefer the satellites post-1979 but this field is so laden with duplicitous propaganda and false or misplaced ethics that they avoid anything that disturbs their thermageddon hypothesis. Well, Im still not happy with that result. There was an unusual number to time of observation changes recorded but no one considered why there would be so many changes. The change of TOBS is on the record. the spatial variability is pretty scary (technical term). If so, consider my correcting you as just a small needed adjustment to get things more accurate, my own sort of TOBS adjustment, (Totally Obscure Badinage Spelling), Pick the ever-changing two important spots on the planet Earth, that are in line with the Sun. I agree, however, that raw data other than CRN-equivalent won’t do. You say generally US data isn’t used before1895 but then link to a graphic going back to the start of the 19th century. Huh? Only a silly goose would try to prioritize them by your criteria. But whence all this precision? then that one can get spanked hard. This is not true. . The time of the day, that the extremes occur is not relevant. ask yourself what is the tmin and tmax for a satellite? The US record CAN be corrected for TOB. An average is of no use in understanding what is happening, it’s meaningless to the thermal environment of an area. Then the modified forecast will be returned. Geoff. But it appears Mosher wants to keep it that way, which is unfortunate. This is thE actual physical data I observed in the US weather review year books I looked at this afternoon in the Met office library. Historical question: Who first suggested this in 2007 as the best way to settled the issue? Soc., 84, 331-335. http://pielkeclimatesci.wordpress.com/files/2009/10/r-247.pdf. So US data prior to 1895 IS used then, as a stand alone country file And also as part of a global record? Then maybe it is time to break the data into two separate series — a legacy series and a modern series which requires no such adjustments. The good news is that you have all the information to correct it. Meh.. Now in this charged environment we have the opposite. The random stuff people have found is nothing compared to what you can find if you look in a systematic fashion. The time of switch-over has not been consistent, some states adopting it, others not, some counties adopting it, others not, some states opting in then out then in again etc. Our job is to measure WARMING or TREND as accurately as possible, to remove changing biases, not constant ones. Sorry, but it has been fraudelently adjusted to show warming In Bolivia and Paraguay 100% certain. for 1997 is 62.45. If somebody with the resources were to reproduce the Karl maps using real data, then this could be used to check a lot of what we’re spending a lot of time arguing about here. So it is popular for arch-alarmists to say that the sea is still warming based entirely on a step-change due to an instrumentation change that was just ignored by Leviticus. (by 2 hundredths of a degree).”. My worry is that, once you go out far enough, you start getting correlations by chance. http://images.remss.com/papers/msu/MSU_AMSU_C-ATBD.pdf 4. “That way they can repudiate him under oath”. The amplitude of the diurnal cycle in the boundary layer is larger over land than over ocean, and generally larger in summer than winter (except for monsoon regions, where it is larger in the dry season). =================. :) ), http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/amsutemps.pl, That should have been “max minus min,” not “max minux min.”. 3/ looking at individual weather stations, one can also observe significant and questionable adjustment evolutions : I am not accusing anybody of fraud or mannhandling the data or of using poor statistical methods. to seee models re run with accurate forcing. consistent with decreased weather variability in most tropical areas. I’d like to see actual forcing versus the projected forcing and I’d like Minimum and maximum temperatures are analyzed separately, and the step change associated with the TOBs is removed for both. The article states “While some commenters have hyperbolically referred to temperature adjustments as “the biggest science scandal ever”, the reality is far more mundane. Instead we get DIVERSION to a different topic. Will they improve with time and more researchers working in the area (e.g. Do I have this correct? ==> “People who aren’t sold the bill of goods on technical grounds are harder to wave away, you get the bullying.”, ==> “Are you suggesting that either Roger Pielke or I think the temperature record was tampered with?”. I don’t know. I think that I understand that making the TOB adjustment is worthwhile for the weathermen who are concerned about the change in weather from yesterday until today. 1998). Think of it as a test of good faith. That is the question that the ongoing analyses are designed to answer. Young remarks that in observation, no attempt is made to use instruments of precision to check the accuracy of the phenomenon. Paywall-free version here: http://www-users.york.ac.uk/~kdc3/papers/crn2016/CRN%20Paper%20Revised.pdf Some time later I discovered the network of Personal Weather Stations (PWS) on Weather Underground. I could certainly be wrong but why would they ask skeptics anything unless they were expert on Nasa methods. See also Hansen et al 2010 Eos, 85, No. So you have this time series going back to eras when people would think you and me walking down their street were aliens, and likely devils. Just a thought but still going for the gold…. Even if what Zeke says about TOBS makes sense, the probability that his explanation is correct is close to zero. He would not say that if he lived in Neverland. Anyway. UHI has been measured long before greenhouse effect became popular. George you dont need two thermometers and you dont WANT two thermometers. 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